China’s Diplomatic Charm Offensive: Strategic Moves Ahead of Possible Trump Return

China, facing the potential resurgence of Donald Trump in the White House and grappling with domestic economic hurdles, has embarked on a diplomatic endeavor aimed at mending relations, particularly with allies of the United States.

From expressing aspirations for a “new beginning” with Japan to reaching a conciliatory stance with India, Chinese officials have been actively seeking to alleviate diplomatic tensions as the U.S. presidential election looms. Notably, Beijing has also signaled its readiness to enhance relations with the United Kingdom and Australia, marking a deviation from the confrontational diplomacy often associated with China during Trump’s previous tenure.

These diplomatic overtures reflect a shift in Beijing’s strategic calculus—mirrored by other nations—anticipating the potential return of a volatile U.S. president. Strengthening these relationships could offer China a buffer against economic disruptions potentially instigated by a leader who has pledged to implement sweeping tariffs that could disrupt commerce between the world’s largest economies and has even targeted America’s own allies with trade threats.

“China’s recent moves to improve or stabilize relations with various countries have been particularly noticeable over the past month,” noted Richard McGregor, a senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute in Sydney. “Beijing appears to be seeking allies and partners to mitigate any instability arising from Trump’s potential return.”

Illustrating this diplomatic recalibration, China and India reached a significant accord on Monday, agreeing to resume patrol operations along the contested Himalayan frontier. This agreement ended a four-year standoff and paved the way for India to potentially ease punitive measures against Chinese companies.

Just two days afterward, President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi convened for their first formal dialogue since 2022, held on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia. The leaders committed to stabilizing bilateral ties and emphasized the need for enhanced communication and collaboration, as reported by Chinese state media outlet CCTV.

This diplomatic thaw is also indicative of broader global adjustments to increasing trade barriers. Developing nations have shown a readiness to fortify ties with China as a hedge against growing U.S. protectionism, according to Henry Wang Huiyao, founder of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing.

“The U.S.’s penchant for blaming external forces for its internal economic challenges is pushing nations to seek alternatives,” he remarked, alluding to Trump’s threats to impose broad-based tariffs on both allies and adversaries.

Current polling indicates a neck-and-neck contest between Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, with razor-thin margins in pivotal battleground states.

China’s commercial relationships are set to face further examination at a series of global forums in Latin America following the U.S. election, including the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and G20 summits.

For some of China’s trading partners, the recent diplomatic efforts have already yielded benefits. Australian wine exports, for instance, have surged by over a third this year, fueled by increased shipments to China following the resolution of a dispute regarding Canberra’s call for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19.

Japan’s seafood industry could be poised for a similar windfall. After previously prohibiting imports of such products and protesting Tokyo’s release of treated wastewater from a damaged nuclear facility, Beijing recently reached an agreement with Japan that could lift the embargo.

These diplomatic gains may enable China to cushion against escalating tensions with the U.S. and the European Union, which recently voted to impose steep tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. In retaliation, China has urged its automakers to halt expansion efforts within the EU, according to reports.

Meanwhile, U.S.-China relations have shown some signs of stabilization over the past year, despite ongoing disputes over contentious matters such as Taiwan, the South China Sea, and President Joe Biden’s export restrictions on advanced technology.

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, who has engaged in numerous high-level discussions with his Chinese counterparts this year, recently noted that Beijing appears to recognize that electoral periods and leadership transitions are “sensitive times” and has shown a willingness to handle relations cautiously.

The recent diplomatic overtures have largely been driven by China, according to Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, who characterized the initiative as a “charm offensive.”

In China, the effort to mend long-standing diplomatic rifts has generated anticipation for a favorable reception. The nationalist news outlet Guancha.cn observed that while warming ties with Australia have emerged, Canberra has refrained from imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles due to national security concerns, unlike the U.S. and EU.

However, these renewed diplomatic efforts are unlikely to translate into significant shifts on core issues. China has maintained a firm stance on its territorial claims in Taiwan and the South China Sea, even as it seeks to alleviate trade tensions.

Similarly, Australia’s fundamental security priorities remain unchanged, as demonstrated by the recent $4.7 billion procurement of precision missiles from the U.S., a deal hailed as a response to “the most significant arms race” in the region since World War II.

In India, deep-seated suspicion toward China persists, and officials have indicated that it is uncertain how much regulatory flexibility will be granted to Chinese investors. They emphasized that the pursuit of improved relations is aimed at bolstering India’s economic strength over the long term, rather than marking a strategic pivot away from the U.S.-aligned Quad, which also includes Japan and Australia.

Nonetheless, as Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, articulated, the warming relations with neighboring countries afford China greater latitude and maneuverability. This diplomatic outreach coincides with China’s sluggish economic growth, which has reached its slowest pace since early 2023, prompting Beijing to seek renewed economic vitality through assertive policy measures.

“Amidst domestic economic constraints and a desire to attract foreign investment, it is unsurprising that Beijing is endeavoring to improve ties with key regional partners, who also serve as vital economic allies,” Chong stated.